A canonical space-time state space model: state and parameter estimation

The maximum likelihood estimation of a dynamic spatiotemporal model is introduced, centred around the inclusion of a prior arbitrary spatiotemporal neighborhood description. The neighborhood description defines a specific parameterization of the state transition matrix, chosen on the basis of prior knowledge about the system. The model used is inspired by the spatiotemporal ARMA (STARMA) model, but the representation used is based on the standard state-space model. The inclusion of the neighborhood into an expectation-maximization based joint state and parameter estimation algorithm allows for accurate characterization of the spatiotemporal model. The process of including the neighborhood, and the effect it has on the maximum likelihood parameter estimate is described and demonstrated in this paper

Optimizing Omega

"The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com " Copyright Springer. DOI: 10.1007/s10898-008-9396-5This paper considers the Omega function, proposed by Cascon, Keating & Shadwick as a performance measure for comparing financial assets. We discuss the use of Omega as a basis for portfolio selection. We show that the problem of choosing portfolio weights in order to maximize Omega typically has many local solutions and we describe some preliminary computational experience of finding the global optimum using a NAG library implementation of the Huyer & Neumaier MCS method.Peer reviewe

MHD Memes

The celebration of Allan Kaufman's 80th birthday was an occasion to reflect on a career that has stimulated the mutual exchange of ideas (or memes in the terminology of Richard Dawkins) between many researchers. This paper will revisit a meme Allan encountered in his early career in magnetohydrodynamics, the continuation of a magnetohydrodynamic mode through a singularity, and will also mention other problems where Allan's work has had a powerful cross-fertilizing effect in plasma physics and other areas of physics and mathematics.Comment: Submitted for publication in IOP Journal of Physics: Conference Series for publication in "Plasma Theory, Wave Kinetics, and Nonlinear Dynamics", Proceedings of KaufmanFest, 5-7 October 2007, University of California, Berkeley, US

A Future Teachers Conference – A Vehicle to Retain, Inform, and Inspire New and Prospective Teachers

The Los Angeles Collaborative for Teacher Excellence (LACTE) Future Teachers Conference is a day-long learning event for beginning and pre-service K-12 math and science teachers. The Conference provides information, resources and connections tailored to the needs of prospective and new teachers. A unique aspect of the conference is that a group of new and future teachers serve as partners with college faculty on the planning committee. Thus the Conference not only serves to educate new and future teachers, but also provides leadership training for the planning team members; and, the presence of prospective and new teachers on the planning team ensures that the conference sessions effectively target the intended audience\u27s interests. This conference is the most popular activity for new and prospective teachers in the Collaborative. Over the five years the conference has been held, its attendance has grown to 120-150 participants annually. A planning handbook is available to assist anyone interested in organizing a similar event

Parameter estimation and inference for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems: application to morphogenesis in D. melanogaster

Background: Reaction-diffusion systems are frequently used in systems biology to model developmental and signalling processes. In many applications, count numbers of the diffusing molecular species are very low, leading to the need to explicitly model the inherent variability using stochastic methods. Despite their importance and frequent use, parameter estimation for both deterministic and stochastic reaction-diffusion systems is still a challenging problem. Results: We present a Bayesian inference approach to solve both the parameter and state estimation problem for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems. This allows a determination of the full posterior distribution of the parameters (expected values and uncertainty). We benchmark the method by illustrating it on a simple synthetic experiment. We then test the method on real data about the diffusion of the morphogen Bicoid in Drosophila melanogaster. The results show how the precision with which parameters can be inferred varies dramatically, indicating that the ability to infer full posterior distributions on the parameters can have important experimental design consequences. Conclusions: The results obtained demonstrate the feasibility and potential advantages of applying a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in stochastic reaction-diffusion systems. In particular, the ability to estimate credibility intervals associated with parameter estimates can be precious for experimental design. Further work, however, will be needed to ensure the method can scale up to larger problems

Nonaxisymmetric, multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium solutions

We describe a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) constrained energy functional for equilibrium calculations that combines the topological constraints of ideal MHD with elements of Taylor relaxation. Extremizing states allow for partially chaotic magnetic fields and non-trivial pressure profiles supported by a discrete set of ideal interfaces with irrational rotational transforms. Numerical solutions are computed using the Stepped Pressure Equilibrium Code, SPEC, and benchmarks and convergence calculations are presented.Comment: Submitted to Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion for publication with a cluster of papers associated with workshop: Stability and Nonlinear Dynamics of Plasmas, October 31, 2009 Atlanta, GA on occasion of 65th birthday of R.L. Dewar. V2 is revised for referee

Generalised action-angle coordinates defined on island chains

Straight-field-line coordinates are very useful for representing magnetic fields in toroidally confined plasmas, but fundamental problems arise regarding their definition in 3-D geometries because of the formation of islands and chaotic field regions, ie non-integrability. In Hamiltonian dynamical systems terms these coordinates are a form of action-angle variables, which are normally defined only for integrable systems. In order to describe 3-D magnetic field systems, a generalisation of this concept was proposed recently by the present authors that unified the concepts of ghost surfaces and quadratic-flux-minimising (QFMin) surfaces. This was based on a simple canonical transformation generated by a change of variable $\theta = \theta(\Theta,\zeta)$, where $\theta$ and $\zeta$ are poloidal and toroidal angles, respectively, with $\Theta$ a new poloidal angle chosen to give pseudo-orbits that are a) straight when plotted in the $\zeta,\Theta$ plane and b) QFMin pseudo-orbits in the transformed coordinate. These two requirements ensure that the pseudo-orbits are also c) ghost pseudo-orbits. In the present paper, it is demonstrated that these requirements do not \emph{uniquely} specify the transformation owing to a relabelling symmetry. A variational method of solution that removes this lack of uniqueness is proposed.Comment: 10 pages. Accepted by Plasma Physics and Controlled Fusion as part of a cluster of refereed papers in a special issue containing papers arising from the Joint International Stellarator & Heliotron Workshop and Asia-Pacific Plasma Theory Conference, held in Canberra and Murramarang Resort, Australia, 30 January - 3 February, 201

Opportunities for weed manipulation using GMHT row crops

The herbicides and cultivation systems available in most non-GM crops allow farmers little flexibility as to when they control weeds. However, glyphosate and glufosinate-ammonium, as used in GM herbicide tolerant crops, offer the opportunity to control large weeds and weed control can be timed according to the agronomic and environmental aims of the user. This paper will use sugar beet as a model crop and report results where different approaches to weed control have been used and discuss their relevance in the wider agricultural and environmental contextNon peer reviewe